The sword of Damocles dangles over Roger Federer's head, held up by a blade of grass.
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Federer arrives at Wimbledon feeling the full weight of his reign, not unlike the figure of Greek legend who discovered the king he envied ruled with a sword over his head held by a thin thread. Power always comes at a price.
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Not only are Federer's grass-court streaks at risk, but so too is the uninterrupted run at the top of men's tennis he has held since February 2004.
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"It's a huge moment for Federer — the most pressure on him going into Wimbledon ever," ESPN commentator Patrick McEnroe says of the top-ranked Swiss, who beat Dominik Hrbaty 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 at Centre Court Monday to run his winning streak on grass to an ongoing record 60 matches.
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The year's third major represents not so much a test as a crucible.
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Should Federer emerge from the All England Club without an Open-era (since 1968) record sixth consecutive title, he will have been shut out through the first three majors of a year for the first time since 2002, the year before he began racking up Grand Slams at a record pace.
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If Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic or French Open winner Rafael Nadal winds up with the Wimbledon spoils, Federer, 26, will be hard-pressed to keep his record 230-week streak atop the ATP rankings alive, much less end the year at No. 1.
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"It's a challenge, but I'm quite confident the second half of the season is going to be better than the first, and this is why I want to focus on grass now," Federer said after his 6-1, 6-3, 6-0 demolition at the hands of No. 2 Nadal in the French Open final two weeks ago, his worst loss at a major.
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At the defending champion's news conference Sunday, Federer added: "From (today) on all the way to the U.S. Open for me, it's where I can really judge my season, if it's going to be a good one or maybe, you know, a less good one. ... I'm still pretty proud about achieving my third French Open final, but for some, I guess, that's still not good enough."
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His closest rivals are only too eager to see the sword fall.
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No. 3 Djokovic said Saturday that Federer was feeling more pressure because "mentally he was filled up" from his dominance the last four years.
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"I think for him it's a big challenge to defend the first place in the world," the self-assured Serb says.
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Nadal has been more deferential, but his big win in Paris, his improved play, and his status as two-time Wimbledon runner-up have many picking him as the one destined to break Federer's grass-court streaks.
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"I only can say thanks to Bjorn for his words," Nadal said Saturday of five-time winner Bjorn Borg, who predicted a Nadal victory after Roland Garros. "But, you know, Bjorn is not magic."
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Sub-par season
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By Federer's recent standards, the first six months of his 2008 campaign have been mediocre, at best.
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He was diagnosed with mononucleosis at the start of the year, and he has won just two titles, in Estoril, Portugal, on clay in April, and this month in Halle, Germany, on grass. The 12-time major winner is 37-8 this season, which means he enters Wimbledon with twice as many losses as he has averaged at this time the last four years.
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"Maybe at the beginning of the year I felt a little slow," says Federer, who has kept an unusually low profile this year heading into Wimbledon. "Just felt a little bit rattled due to the sickness I had."
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Losses to Djokovic in the Australian Open semifinals on cement and to Nadal on clay opened up a two-surface assault on his reign.
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Nadal's victory in the French Open final for the third year in a row was so complete — exposing Federer's tactical errors, holes in his backhand and possibly cracks in his psyche — that even Borg, whose five-year run at Wimbledon (from 1976 to 1980) Federer is poised to break, doesn't think the smooth-swinging Swiss heads into the event as the favorite.
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"If he survive(s) the first two or three rounds at Wimbledon this year, then I pick Nadal to win Wimbledon," Borg said.
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In some ways, the plot line is conspicuously similar to 1981, when John McEnroe snapped Borg's half-decade of dominance at Wimbledon in the final.
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Like the epic rivalry 27 years ago, 2008 features a brash, young southpaw who pushed a five-time defending champion to five sets in the Wimbledon final the year before.
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McEnroe had beaten Borg in their previous Grand Slam meeting at the 1980 U.S. Open, just as Nadal did to Federer at Roland Garros. There was even a third rival in the mix in Jimmy Connors, who, not unlike 21-year-old Djokovic, was looking to secure his own rightful place atop the game.
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"The thing with Borg and my brother is somewhat comparable," says Patrick McEnroe, who also is the U.S. Davis Cup captain. "John had come so close the year before and was kind of the heir apparent to being No. 1. But based on what Djokovic has done this year, it's not so clear that Nadal is going to be the next No. 1."
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That honor still belongs to Federer. And there is no better place for him to reassert himself than the lawns of Wimbledon, where he won his first Slam in 2003 and where his confidence and skills are most ascendant.
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Federer restored some needed self-belief with an efficient win at Halle, running through a tournament without dropping serve for just the second time in his career. The victory tied Pete Sampras' record 10 titles on grass.
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"I felt the pressure early on, but I felt great as the week wore on," Federer said after beating Philipp Kohlschreiber of Germany in the final June 15. "I felt like I had a spring in my step — that's important after the start of the year."
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"I think it really favors my game because of my ability to move, the way I defend, the way I use my shot selection," Federer said Sunday. "I think it really works in my favor. I haven't lost in such a long time on grass. Obviously my confidence is really, really high."
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Sampras, the modern recordholder with seven Wimbledon titles, was 29 when he won his last All England Club championship in 2000. He says it would be foolish to make comparisons to his final victory in London.
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"I was a different place in my life and career," Sampras said when asked if Federer had peaked. "I think completely the opposite. He's still in his prime and will be for the next couple years. I just think every great player in every sport goes through a little lull, and this is his little lull."
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Few of Federer's rivals are questioning his credentials on grass.
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"He's won it five times," sixth-ranked Andy Roddick said Saturday when asked about Federer's vulnerability. "I'm not sure what else he has to do. He's still the favorite here until someone else proves otherwise."
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Nadal's confidence high
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Others think the moment is lining up for 2006 and 2007 Wimbledon finalist Nadal, whom Federer barely held off in a five-set thriller last year. Nadal topped a tough field at the grass-court tune-up at Queen's Club the week after Roland Garros, beating four-time champion Roddick in the semifinals and Djokovic in the final. It was the 22-year-old's first title on grass.
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With more variety and power, Nadal is a more complete player on grass than a year ago. His confidence also is sky-high from Paris, where he won without dropping a set.
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Nadal doesn't think his French Open win inflicted psychological damage on Federer.
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"He didn't lose a set (at) Halle," Nadal said Saturday. "Fifty-nine matches without los(ing). C'mon."
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Concurred Federer: "You know, it's almost easier to forget a loss like that than, let's say, the (2006) Rome finals I lost against Rafa with (Nadal) two match points down. Took me much longer to sort of digest. The French was over in such a hurry. ... I'm happy I haven't been affected by it."
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Cliff Drysdale, the veteran ESPN commentator, isn't so sure such a beating can be whitewashed.
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"I don't think it translates to the rest of the field," Drysdale says of the psychological blow to Federer. "But if Nadal gets to the final, then I think it will affect the outcome."
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Federer doesn't sound like a guy quaking in his sneakers, even if he knows how much is on the line and how thin the blades of grass on which he stands are.
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"We'll see later what happens for the ranking," he says. "It's true that Rafa has played very well so far, but the clay season is over, so let's see what happens."
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